FTA / APSA Shipping Report - Edition 14 2025 Sponsored by Blue Water Shipping

Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA) and the Australian Peak Shippers Association (APSA) have prepared the following report using practical efforts to ensure that the commentaries are accurate, generally using source intelligence and publicly available data. 

• Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) has resumed its downward trend, falling to $2,157 per 40-foot container as at 24 April 2025.
  • Since the last report on 27 March 2025, when the WCI stood at $2,168, rates have edged down a further 0.5% month-on-month.
  • Compared to the recent high of $3,985 recorded on 9 January 2025, the index has now fallen by 46%.
  • The index remains 24.7% lower year-on-year.
  • Despite the ongoing decline, WCI levels are still 52% above the 2019 pre-pandemic average of $1,420, although that gap continues to narrow.
  • After a short-lived uptick earlier in April driven by market reaction to proposed US tariffs, rates have fallen for the past two consecutive weeks.
  • With demand still soft and shipping capacity on the rise, uncertainty around new US tariffs and potential policy shifts could drive short-term volatility. Rates may move either way in the coming weeks.
• Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) rose by $67 to $668 per 40ft container in the first half of April, marking the first increase after seven consecutive fortnightly declines since mid-December.
  • This represents an 11% rise compared to $601 recorded at the end of March.
  • The uptick suggests a short-term rebound in the market, likely influenced by tariff-related volatility and rate adjustments following the earlier sustained decline. However, with underlying demand conditions still subdued, it remains to be seen whether this recovery will be sustained in the coming weeks.

• Freight rates across North and East Asia trades continue to face strong downward pressure. While recent tariff announcements and carrier rate restorations have sparked some short-term movement, the backdrop remains one of oversupply and softening demand—particularly into Australia. Carriers continue to pursue rate increases and surcharges in an effort to restore margins, but spot rates remain fragile and volatile.
  • MSC announce a General Rate Increase (GRI) effective 8 May 2025 from Asia and Oceania to Latin America at USD 500 per 20' and USD 1,000 per 40', including High Cube and non-operating reefers.
  • MSC announce a Southbound Rate Restoration of USD 300 per TEU effective 1 May 2025 for all shipments from China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan to Australia and New Zealand.
  • COSCO announce a Rate Restoration of USD 300 per TEU and USD 600 per FEU effective 1 May 2025 for all southbound shipments from Northeast Asia to Australia.
  • COSCO also announce a separate Rate Restoration of USD 300 per TEU and USD 600 per FEU effective 1 May 2025 for all southbound shipments from Southeast Asia to Australia.
  • Maersk announce a revision to their Container Shifting Origin (CSO) surcharge for exports from Australia to global destinations, increasing from AUD 150 to AUD 200 effective 1 June 2025.
  • ZIM announce a Rate Restoration of USD 300 per TEU (dry and reefer) effective 21 April 2025 for shipments from Northeast Asia to Australia.
  • Gold Star Line (GSL) announce a Rate Restoration of USD 300 per TEU (dry and reefer) effective 21 April 2025 for exports from Northeast Asia to Australia.
  • ANL announce a Rate Restoration effective 1 May 2025 at USD 300 per 20' and USD 600 per 40' (dry and reefer) for all shipments from Northeast Asia to the Australian East Coast.
  • CMA CGM announce the implementation of a Low Sulfur Surcharge from 1 May 2025 for all shipments entering, exiting, or transiting through the Mediterranean Emission Control Area (ECA).

• ONE FY2024 Snapshot
  Ocean Network Express posted a 32% jump in revenue to US$19.2 billion for the year to March 2025, alongside an EBITDA surge of 192% and an 871% lift in EBIT, driving net profit up to US$4.24 billion (YoY+US$3.27 billion).
  "We are pleased to report a profit of US$4,244 million for FY2024—an achievement realized despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and regional economic uncertainties. Through our participation in the newly established The Premier Alliance, launched in February, along with various other service partnerships, we have further expanded our global network and enhanced our service offerings to better meet customers' evolving needs. We remain fully committed to delivering strong, reliable, and highly dependable end-to-end direct port container services to our valued customers." — Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express
   
• Hapag-Lloyd Q1 2025 Snapshot
  On preliminary Q1 2025 figures, Hapag-Lloyd delivered a 17% rise in Group EBITDA to US$1.1 billion(EUR1.0 billion) and a 24% boost in Group EBIT to US$0.5 billion(EUR0.5 billion). Transport volume reached 3.3 million TEU and average freight rates climbed 9% to US$1,480/TEU. The Executive Board reconfirms FY 2025 guidance of Group EBITDA US$2.5–4.0 billion(EUR2.4–3.9 billion) and Group EBIT US$0.0–1.5 billion(EUR0.0–1.5 billion).
  "Both the ongoing tense situation in the Red Sea and the global trade conflict could have a significant impact on supply and demand in container shipping and thus also on Hapag-Lloyd's earnings performance."— Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd AG

• HMM Reports Strong Profitability Amidst Strategic Growth
  HMM released its full-year 2024 results, posting robust profitability despite market volatility. The company delivered its third-best performance in history, backed by disciplined fleet management, strategic newbuild deployments, and network optimisation.
  Key Figures:
  - Revenue: KRW 11.7 trillion (+39% YoY)
  - Operating Profit: KRW 3.51 trillion (+501% YoY)
  - Net Profit: KRW 3.78 trillion (+290% YoY)
  - Operating Margin: 30%
  HMM is advancing a bold 2030 mid-to-long-term strategy, committing KRW 23.5 trillion to expand container and bulk capacity, logistics infrastructure, and eco-friendly initiatives. Investments include 70 green vessels and a target of achieving Net Zero emissions by 2045. While cautioning that oversupply and tariff risks could weigh on 2025 performance, HMM remains confident in its diversified growth roadmap.

• Höegh Autoliners Delivers Solid Q1 2025 Result, Navigates Rate Softness
  Höegh posted a Q1 2025 net profit after tax of USD 155 million, up 11% quarter-on-quarter, despite a 5% softening in gross freight rates.
  Key Figures:
  - Total Revenues: USD 329 million (flat YoY)
  - EBITDA: USD 155 million (down 4% YoY)
  - Net Profit: USD 155 million (up 35% YoY)
  - Dividend: USD 158 million to be paid in May
  The company strengthened its contract backlog, signing two new long-term agreements with major car manufacturers (each valued over USD 100 million). Höegh also exercised a purchase option for Höegh Copenhagen and delivered Höegh New York to its new owner. Market headwinds linked to US tariff risks remain a concern, but Höegh's diversified load base and ongoing fleet upgrades are providing resilience.

• OOCL Sees Revenue Growth Despite Mixed Market Conditions
  OOCL released its unaudited Q1 2025 operational update, recording strong volume and revenue growth across most trades.
  Key Figures:
  - Total Revenue: USD 2.31 billion (+16.8% YoY)
  - Total Liftings: 1.96 million TEUs (+9.3% YoY)
  - Average Revenue per TEU: +6.9% YoY
  Trans-Pacific volumes jumped 23.8%, helping offset weaker liftings on the Asia-Europe trade. The company reported improved load factors and higher average rates, reflecting a firm start to the year despite softening conditions in parts of the market.

Supply / Demand

• Supply:
  • Capacity Outlook:
    While new capacity continues to flood the market, much of it remains ineffective due to ongoing disruptions. As at April 2025, blank sailings have surged, particularly on Transpacific routes where announced cancellations from weeks 16 to 19 jumped from 22 to 65 sailings?
    Carriers are actively pulling services in response to weak Chinese export volumes and tariff-driven uncertainty.
    Port congestion remains a major factor in Europe, with average vessel waiting times reaching 52 hours at Antwerp, and over 36 hours at both Bremerhaven and Rotterdam?
    Global container ship fleet growth is set to outstrip demand again this year, with the vessel orderbook surpassing 9 million TEUs for the first time?. Drewry's Global Supply/Demand Index continues to trend into overcapacity territory, suggesting further pressure on carrier leverage?
    On the Transatlantic, limited blank sailings and an 8% capacity increase into May reflect carriers' expectations of tariff-driven frontloading from European exporters?.
    Meanwhile, the introduction of US service fees targeting Chinese-built vessels from October 2025 is adding to operational uncertainty, but is not yet impacting capacity.?

• Demand:
  • Global Trade Outlook:
    Forecasts for global container trade have darkened considerably since last month. The WTO now expects world merchandise trade volumes to shrink by up to -1.5% in 2025, making it only the sixth contraction in six decades?. S&P Global projects global containerised trade growth slowing sharply to just 1.4% this year?.

• • Most analysts cite Trump's sweeping tariff measures as the catalyst for the rapid deterioration in global trade sentiment?
    In the container sector specifically, Drewry now forecasts a 1% contraction in total global container port throughput for 2025?—only the third year of negative growth since 1979.
  • The contraction in global demand forecast for 2025 is set to erode carrier leverage further, amplifying overcapacity pressures across the market. As vessels are redeployed to secondary trades, port productivity is likely to suffer slight declines. Higher levels of vessel scrapping and idling will be needed to restore balance in the supply/demand index:

• • Regional Trade Trends:
    • Transpacific trades have seen export bookings from China fall by 30-60%, while broader Asia export bookings are down 10-20%
    • Transatlantic volumes show some early signs of resilience, supported by tariff frontloading and relatively stable rates?.
    • Asia–Oceania trades (including Australian services) remain under pressure from excess capacity and weaker consumer demand?
       

• • Near-Term Market Sentiment:
    • Overall demand conditions remain fragile. While a modest early peak season is anticipated into Europe and Oceania (driven by longer Cape of Good Hope routings?), tariff uncertainty and slower global growth are casting a long shadow over second-half prospects.

• • Key risks:
    • Additional tariff rounds post-July 9, 2025, could trigger a sharper downturn??
    • Rising freight costs from fee impositions and extended transit times could dampen trade even further.

• • Australian Border Force (ABF) Cargo Reporting Data for March 2025 saw year-on-year growth, with both air and sea cargo reporting higher than 2024:
    • Sea Cargo:
      • Up 22% year-on-year 
      • Up month-on-month compared to February.
    • Air Cargo: 
      • Up 14% year-on-year. 
      • Up month-on-month compared to February.
    • Total Cargo Reports (Air + Sea): 
      • 13.5 million cargo reports lodged in March. 
      • Up 14% year-on-year. 

• USA Trump Tariffs and Global Shipping – Major Trade and Policy Disruption (April 2025 Update):
  • President Trump's 2025 tariff program has continued to cause significant upheaval in global trade flows, particularly targeting China. While 72% of newly imposed tariffs have been paused or diluted, core punitive measures focused on Chinese maritime dominance remain intact and are being actively implemented.

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    USTR SERVICE FEES – TARGETING CHINESE OPERATORS AND CHINA-BUILT SHIPS

    The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has invoked powers under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorises the U.S. government to investigate and respond to unfair or discriminatory trade practices. The USTR's 2025 investigation found that China's actions in the shipbuilding, maritime, and logistics sectors were harming U.S. commercial interests, justifying trade retaliation.

    Key Dates:

  • 12 March 2024 – Petition submitted by five U.S. labour unions requesting an investigation into China's maritime and shipbuilding sectors (under Biden administration).

  • 17 April 2024 – Section 301 investigation formally launched by USTR (pre-dating Trump's return to office).

  • 16 January 2025 – Final report issued by USTR, concluding China's practices "unreasonable and discriminatory".

  • 21 February 2025 – Trump administration publishes proposed retaliatory actions after taking office.

  • 17 April 2025 – Final measures confirmed and published, incorporating feedback from public consultations.

  • 14 October 2025 – Implementation of phased maritime service fees begins following a 180-day grace period.

• Fee Schedule (charged per vessel rotation, up to 5 times per year)

  Category	Oct 2025	Apr 2026	Apr 2027	Apr 2028
  Chinese-owned/operated ships	$50/NT	$80/NT	$110/NT	$140/NT
  Non-Chinese operator using China-built ship (NT basis)	$18/NT	$23/NT	$28/NT	$33/NT
  Non-Chinese operator using China-built ship (container basis)	$120	$153	$195	$250
  Non-U.S. built vehicle carriers	$150 per unit	Increasing annually

  • Fees apply on a per-voyage basis across U.S. ports (not per individual port call).

  • China-affiliated shipping includes operators with direct/indirect Chinese government ownership or control.

  • Exemptions include small vessels, short-sea trades, certain U.S.-flagged or U.S.-built ships.

  • A fee remission program is available for operators that commit to building new U.S.-built vessels.

• Impact

  • Drewry forecasts cost increases of up to USD$1,600 per container by 2028 on Asia–U.S. West Coast routes.

  • Between 12–23% of Transpacific fleet capacity could be affected by these fees.

• U.S. importers are advised to scrutinise contract terms and challenge any unjustified carrier surcharges linked to the new regime.

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  REMOVAL OF DE MINIMIS TREATMENT FOR CHINESE GOODS

  From 2 May 2025, low-value goods originating in China and Hong Kong will no longer be eligible for duty-free entry into the United States under simplified import processes.

  What This Means

  • All qualifying goods from China and Hong Kong, including small online purchases and mail-order items, will now be subject to full customs clearance procedures.

  • Duties, taxes, and fees will be payable regardless of shipment value.

  • Applies to commercial express deliveries and international mail parcels.

  • Implications for Traders and Carriers

  • Importers will face increased costs and paperwork when bringing in lower-value goods from China.

  • Clearance times for Chinese-origin consignments are expected to increase.

  • Carriers handling international mail are now responsible for ensuring correct duties are collected on applicable shipments.

• ---

  SUPPLY CHAIN AND FREIGHT MARKET IMPACTS

  Port and Carrier Activity

  • China-to-U.S. West Coast vessel arrivals projected to fall 44% year-on-year in early May.

  • Weekly TEU volumes into LA/LB ports down by almost 50% over a two-week period.

  • Over 80 blank sailings from China recorded in April.

    • Cancellation rates: Gemini Alliance (24%), Ocean Alliance (18%), Premier Alliance (15%).

  • Industry Shifts

  • Kuehne + Nagel reports China volume declines of 25–30% in April.

  • Importers shifting sourcing to Vietnam, Cambodia, India, and Brazil.

  • Several major retailers paused or redirected shipments amid tariff uncertainty.

  • Forecasts

  • Drewry projects a 1% drop in global container volume in 2025.

  • U.S. containerised imports expected to decline 20% year-on-year in the second half of 2025.

  • Front-loading is expected to intensify in the lead-up to fee implementation, heightening risks of port congestion.

• Red Sea Shipping Update
  • Houthi Attacks on U.S. Naval Forces
    USS Harry S. Truman Incident: On April 28, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman executed evasive manoeuvres to avoid incoming Houthi missile fire in the Red Sea. During these manoeuvres, an F/A-18E Super Hornet fighter jet was accidentally lost overboard. The crew members involved escaped safely, and the incident is under investigation. ?
  • Continued Houthi Threats:
    Despite ongoing U.S. airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure, the rebel group has maintained its capacity to launch attacks on maritime targets, including U.S. naval vessels operating in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. ?
  • U.S. and Allied Military Responses
    Operation Rough Rider: Initiated in March 2025, this U.S.-led campaign has conducted over 1,000 airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, focusing on degrading the group's missile and drone capabilities. ?
  • UK's First Strikes Under Trump Administration: On April 29, the UK joined the U.S. in launching airstrikes against Houthi drone manufacturing facilities near Sanaa, marking its first military action against the Houthis since President Trump's return to office. ?
  • Continued Implications for Global Shipping
    Disruption of Maritime Routes: The ongoing threat from Houthi attacks has led to a continuation of commercial shipping away from the Red Sea.
     

• FMC Awards Samsung US$3.68m in Demurrage Dispute with ZIM
  On 22 April 2025, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) issued an Initial Decision in favour of Samsung Electronics America, awarding US$3,680,339 against ZIM Integrated Shipping Services for "unjust and unreasonable" demurrage and detention charges on nearly 3,000 "store-door" containers handled between May 2020 and June 2022. ZIM was found to have repeated "multiple cargo holds" which violated Section 41102(c) of the Shipping Act and that "numerous ZIM billing errors" meant the additional fees were neither reasonable nor justified. The ruling follows SEA's claim of nearly 10,000 disputed charges and sets a strong precedent underlining the FMC's insistence on clear responsibility for delays and fair billing practices in demurrage and detention disputes.

• VASI Shipping files for Bankruptcy, Owing US$19 million
  VASI Shipping, a Singapore-based line founded in 2012, ceased operations and filed for bankruptcy on 10 April 2025, leaving creditors with US$19 million in unpaid debts. The carrier—known for a small owned fleet supplemented by chartered tonnage on Southeast Asia–Indian Subcontinent trades—also sub-leased slots to established operators on Asia–Australia runs during COVID-era vessel shortages. Ambitions to launch its own Australian service never progressed beyond planning. Despite offering bulk-cargo handling and boasting clients such as CMA CGM, Maersk, ZIM and OOCL, VASI's last-ditch sale of its three owned vessels failed to avert collapse.

• ACCC Delays Decision on DP World's Silk Logistics Acquisition
  The ACCC has announced that it is seeking additional information from DP World Australia and Silk Logistics Holdings, postponing its original 5 June 2025 deadline for announcing its findings. FTA/APSA continues to urge the ACCC to block the takeover, arguing that unchecked vertical integration from quayside to customer would undermine competition and innovation in Australia's logistics sector.

• ACCC Clears Qube–MIRRAT Deal, Imposes Perpetual Undertaking
  ACCC will not oppose Qube's acquisition of Melbourne International RoRo & Auto Terminal (MIRRAT) at Webb Dock West, provided Qube, its subsidiary AAT, and MIRRAT enter a court-enforceable section 87B Undertaking.
  ACCC's concerns: Risk that Qube could leverage control of upstream terminals (Port Kembla, Fisherman Islands, Appleton Dock, Webb Dock West) to disadvantage rivals in automotive stevedoring and pre-delivery inspection services. 
  Key Undertaking provisions:
  • Open, non-discriminatory terminal access across Qube's network
  • Ring-fencing of confidential information from downstream arms (e.g. Prixcar)
  • Independent dispute-resolution for price and non-price issues
  • Mandatory compliance audits and public KPI reporting
  • Strict prohibitions on preferential treatment, service bundling, and favourable terms for Qube-related entities
  • Five-year review mechanism (ACCC-initiated if needed)
    Next steps: ACCC to publish a Public Competition Assessment.

• DSV Completes Schenker Acquisition, Doubling Its Scale
  DSV A/S has finalised the DKK106.7bn (EUR14.3bn) purchase of Schenker from Deutsche Bahn, creating a combined organisation with roughly DKK310bn (EUR41.6bn) in annual revenue—effectively doubling DSV's previous size—and nearly 160,000 employees in over 90 countries. Schenker's results will be consolidated from 1 May 2025, and the integration is expected to deliver approximately DKK9bn of annual synergies by end-2028. DSV's full-year 2025 outlook has been updated to reflect the acquisition's impact.
  "With this acquisition, we become a world-leading player in global transport and logistics, at a time when global supply chains are more in focus than ever before," said Jens H. Lund, Group CEO of DSV.

• Global liner reliability improved further in March 2025, rising to 57.5%, up from 54.9% recorded in February. While still historically low, this marks the highest reliability performance since November 2023, and — outside the February–November 2023 window — the best levels seen since the onset of the pandemic.
  The month-on-month gain of 2.6% indicates continued stabilisation in vessel schedules, even amid ongoing geopolitical volatility and vessel diversions. However, as with February, it's important to note that March results are still partly influenced by the transitional phase-in of the new alliances, meaning some early scores may reflect origin leg performance more than full roundtrip reliability.

  Key Highlights – March 2025

  • 57.5%, up +2.6 percentage points month-on-month

  • Highest performance since November 2023

  • Significant progress compared to previous months, but still below pre-pandemic norms

• Top Performing Carriers/Alliances:

  • Gemini Cooperation – 86%

  • MSC – 74%

  • Premier Alliance – 51%

• Comparison to February 2025:

  • February saw 54.9% reliability globally (+3.6 points M/M at the time).

  • Gemini had posted an early reliability of 94.0% (origin port data only) — now moderating slightly to 86%. Gemini's shuttle network delivered an eye-catching 98.4% schedule reliability in February 2025 across the 15 of its 28 planned routes that were already live—13 of those shuttles even achieved perfect 100 % on-time performance (source: Sea Intelligence). Keep in mind, those figures reflected only the early subset of services (10 in Asia, 2 in Europe, 3 in the Indian Subcontinent/Middle East) and none had yet completed full origin-to-destination loops—February's shuttles were feeding mainliners, not yet taking boxes on a full journey. As more vessels entered longer rotations in March, the alliance's origin-port reliability has since eased to 86%, a modest pullback from its initial surge.
    
    

  • MSC's reliability has declined marginally from 79.6% to 74% as more vessels were measured across longer rotations.

  • Premier Alliance remains in a similar range, at 51% in March compared to 60.4% based on February origin-port data.

• Alliance Landscape Changes:

  • March reflects the continued rollout of the new alliances: Gemini Cooperation, Premier Alliance, and MSC's solo operations.

  • Legacy alliances (2M, THE Alliance) are being phased out, with Ocean Alliance continuing for now.

  • Full network bedding-in is still underway, with a complete evaluation of East-West performance expected by mid-2025.

• Important Caveat:
  While reliability scores continue to improve, the market remains cautious. Vessel diversions (particularly via the Cape of Good Hope) and geopolitical disruptions could quickly reverse gains if not carefully managed through capacity and schedule planning.

• Global:
  Between weeks 18 (28 Apr–4 May) and 22 (26 May–1 Jun), a total of 75 sailings have been cancelled out of 718 scheduled on the key East-West trades, equating to a 10% cancellation rate. This remains flat month-on-month, though the distribution has shifted notably:

  • Transpacific Eastbound: 61% of all cancellations (up from 47% last month)

  • Asia–North Europe & Med: 31% (up from 25%)

  • Transatlantic Westbound: 8% (down from 28%)

• Notably, blank sailings on the Transpacific Eastbound surged from 22 to 65 within a three-week period (weeks 16–19), driven by sharp drops in export bookings ex-China amidst ongoing tariff uncertainty.
  While overall schedule reliability is expected to modestly improve—with Gemini Alliance projected to hit 99% adherence—further cancellations are likely if demand remains weak and overcapacity continues to weigh.

• Australia:
  On the China–Australia trade, April data shows 18 cancellations out of 138 scheduled sailings, reflecting a 13% cancellation rate, up from 10% last month. The rise mirrors broader market instability.

• ZIM Secures Long-Term Charter Deal for Ten LNG-Powered 11,500 TEU Vessels
  ZIM Integrated Shipping Services has announced a significant expansion of its LNG-powered fleet, confirming long-term charter agreements for ten 11,500 TEU dual-fuel container ships. The estimated value of the charter arrangements is approximately USD 2.3 billion, with delivery scheduled between 2027 and 2028.
  Seven of the vessels will be chartered from Container Ventures Holdings Inc., affiliated with the TMS Group, while the remaining three will be supplied by a company linked to Kenon Holdings Ltd., previously ZIM's largest shareholder through the end of 2024.
  All ships will be constructed at the Zhoushan Changhong Shipyard in China and are designed to run on liquefied natural gas (LNG), enhancing both operational efficiency and environmental performance.
  According to ZIM President and CEO Eli Glickman, the move builds on the company's fleet renewal strategy, following the completion of 46 newbuild deliveries between 2021 and 2022. Glickman highlighted that this new capacity will strengthen ZIM's LNG portfolio, improve flexibility across its global trade lanes, and align with long-term decarbonisation goals.
• Container Shipping Faces Scrapping Dilemma Amid Rising Tariffs and Oversupply
  Mounting global trade barriers—most notably the upcoming wave of U.S. tariffs due in July—are poised to compound existing challenges in the container shipping sector, where oversupply is already putting sustained pressure on freight markets.
  Economic commentators are drawing parallels to historic protectionist policies, warning of recessionary risks if retaliatory trade measures escalate. In this climate, older container vessels are increasingly viewed as surplus, yet shipowners have been slow to act.
  Despite more than 3.4 million TEU of fleet capacity now over two decades old, less than 2,000 TEU has been recycled this year. Projections suggest 150,000 TEU may be scrapped in 2025—well short of what's needed to counterbalance the 11 million TEU added through newbuild orders in recent years.
  Unless scrapping accelerates, rate erosion and operating losses will likely deepen. Even with measures like slow steaming and capacity management, carriers are struggling to stabilise earnings. The balance of 2025 may depend not only on fleet decisions, but also on how global governments respond to the resurgence of protectionism—and whether they resist deepening the downturn through further escalation.
• Charter Fleet Share of Global Container Fleet Continues to Decline
  The share of the global container ship fleet held by charter (non-operating) tonnage providers continues to decline, as major shipping lines increase their ownership of vessels through second-hand acquisitions.
  According to Alphaliner, since August 2020, container carriers have purchased around 3.7 million TEU of capacity from charter owners, involving approximately 850 ships, signalling a clear shift toward carrier-owned tonnage within the global fleet.

• Latest orderbook volumes

• IMO's MEPC 83 Establishes IMO Net-Zero Fuel-Intensity Framework
  At its 83rd session (7–11 April 2025), the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee adopted comprehensive amendments to MARPOL Annex VI, creating the IMO Net-Zero Framework for ships over 5,000 GT. This regime mandates annual reporting of a well-to-wake GHG Fuel Intensity (GFI)—covering fuel production through combustion—via an expanded Data Collection System, with verified SEEMP Part II plans on board by 1 January 2028.

  Multi-Tier Reduction Targets & Compliance

  • Base (Tier 1) and Direct-Compliance (Tier 2) targets are set against a 2008 baseline: 4%/17% by 2028; rising steadily to 30%/43% by 2035 and a 65% base cut by 2040.

  • Surplus Units (SUs) accrue when a vessel's GFI falls below its Direct-Compliance target; these may be banked for two years or traded to other ships.

  • Compliance Deficits trigger two tiers of liabilities: Tier 1 deficits (for emissions between Base and Direct-Compliance targets) and Tier 2 deficits (for anything above the Base target).

  • Market-Based Measures & Net-Zero Fund

  • Ships in deficit can offset with purchased SUs or buy Remedial Units (RUs) from the IMO Net-Zero Fund at US$100/t CO2-eq (Tier 1) or US$380/t CO2-eq (Tier 2).

  • All RU revenues flow into the Fund—excluding member-state budgets—and will be redistributed as incentives for zero- and near-zero-GHG fuels, with reward criteria finalised by 1 March 2027.

  Implementation Timeline

  • Entry into Force: 1 March 2027

  • Application Deadline: 1 January 2028

  • First Reporting Period: Calendar year 2028

  • Five-Year Reviews: Scheduled to adjust reduction factors and broaden coverage (potentially down to 400 GT).

  This framework combines regulatory mandates, market-based incentives, and financial penalties to drive deep decarbonisation across the global container fleet.
  In the meantime, the United States announced prior to the meeting that it would not participate in MEPC 83 negotiations, explicitly opposing any emissions-based fees on its vessels and warning of reciprocal measures against IMO charges. A US State Department spokesperson said the move reflects President Trump's policy to prioritise American interests over "hypothetical expensive and unproven fuels"

• Record CO2 Emissions in 2024 Highlight Need for Action
  Global container shipping CO2 emissions surged 14% in 2024—reaching a record 240.6 million tonnes—largely driven by longer sailings around the Cape of Good Hope after Red Sea disruptions. Overall transport work jumped 18% as shippers front-loaded imports, underscoring that diversions and demand spikes, rather than fleet inefficiency alone, fuelled this spike. Ultra-large vessels (14,500–20,000 TEU) saw the steepest increase (+43% to 24.2 Mt), while ships over 20,000 TEU emitted 19.6 Mt (+35%), outpacing their 16.6% growth in transport work due to lower utilisation and higher speeds. Mid-sized vessels (8,000–12,000 TEU) remain the single largest emitters, accounting for over 20% of total CO2 despite representing only 20% of capacity. In response, IMO's MEPC agreed fuel-intensity reduction targets—4% by 2028 (US$380/t penalty) and 17% by 2028 (US$100/t)—with escalating annual cuts to achieve a 65% reduction by 2040. Shippers must now factor carbon performance into carrier selection even amid competing cost pressures.

• China Signals Scrutiny of CK Hutchison Global Port Deal
  China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced on 27 April 2025 that it will closely scrutinise the planned sale of CK Hutchison's overseas port assets to ensure compliance with antitrust regulations and prevent any circumvention of required approvals.
  The warning follows a Wall Street Journal report (16 April) that CK Hutchison is attempting to split its US$22.8 billion global port transaction into two parts—separating two Panamanian ports from a larger deal involving 41 terminals across five continents. The buyer is a consortium led by Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and BlackRock.
  SAMR stressed that no concentration activities can proceed without regulatory approval, and parties must not seek to bypass the review process.
  Negotiations remain ongoing during a 145-day exclusivity period, with no final agreement signed to date. The deal's Panama component is reportedly under parallel discussion and may require a new agreement to proceed.
  China's Foreign Ministry has also weighed in, criticising any attempts at "economic coercion or bullying" that could interfere with lawful international commercial activity.
• CMA CGM Acquires Majority Stake in Santos Brasil
  CMA CGM has completed the acquisition of a 47.9% stake in Santos Brasil Participações S/A, bringing its total shareholding to 51% and establishing itself as the controlling shareholder of the major Brazilian terminal operator. Santos Brasil operates multiple terminals, including South America's largest container facility in the Port of Santos.
• Westport Project Gains Strategic Endorsement from Infrastructure WA
  Infrastructure WA has backed the business case for the proposed Westport container terminal at Kwinana, validating it as the most viable solution to meet Western Australia's future trade needs. With Fremantle Port expected to reach capacity by 2040—or earlier under high-growth scenarios—the report highlights the risks of inaction, including potential costs of $244 billion to the state's economy. The State Government has already committed $273 million toward progressing design and planning ahead of a final investment decision.
• MUA Raises Concerns over DP World Automation Plans
  The Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) has issued a media statement criticising DP World Australia's (DPWA) plans to invest over $600 million in automation across its terminals in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.
  Key points raised:

• • Lack of Consultation: The MUA claims DPWA failed to meet its Enterprise Agreement obligations by not properly consulting workers.

  • Safety & Productivity Risks: The union warns automation could reduce terminal productivity, increase costs, and heighten risks tied to weather, IT, and security vulnerabilities.

  • Cybersecurity: The MUA referenced DPWA's past cyber-attack, expressing concern about risks to critical infrastructure.

  • Charge Increases: The union also criticised DPWA's 52% rise in landside charges this year, particularly impacting exporters—citing commentary from FTA Director Paul Zalai.
    
    The MUA compared this to Patrick Terminals' recent early agreement with the union, portraying it as a more collaborative approach.

• Global Port Throughput – February 2025 Snapshot
  According to Drewry's latest Ports & Terminals Insight, global container port activity dipped in February, largely due to seasonal effects in Greater China, but continues to trend upward on a year-on-year basis.
  Key Global Trends

  • Global Index: Down 1.4% month-on-month (MoM) in February, but up 8.8% year-on-year (YoY). Oceania saw a decline of 4.7% year-on-year

  • 12-Month Rolling Growth: Now at 6.5%, reflecting continued recovery.

  • March Forecast: Nowcasting model projects a 2.8% MoM rise, maintaining 6.5% YoY growth.
    
    

• Patrick terminals
  • Brisbane: Delays approx. 0 - 0.5 day 
  • Fremantle: Delays approx. 0 - 0.5 days
  • Sydney: Delays approx. 2 - 3 days
  • Melbourne: Delays approx. 0 - 0.5 days
• DP World Terminals
  • Brisbane: Delays approx. 1 - 2 days
    • Still issues with equipment outages
  • Fremantle: Delays approx. 0 - 0.5 days
  • Sydney: Delays approx. 2 - 3 days
  • Melbourne: Delays approx. 0 - 0.5 days
• VICT
  • Melbourne: Delays approx. 0.5 day
• Flinders Adelaide Container Terminal (FACT)
  • Adelaide: Delays approx. 0.5 day
• AAT
  • Brisbane: Working with minimal delays.
  • Port Kembla: Berth congestion possible on 2-3 May & 11 May.
  • Melbourne: Working with minimal delays.
• MIRRAT
  • Melbourne: Working with minimal delays.
• New Zealand 
  • Auckland: minimal delays approx. 0.5 - 1 days
  • Tauranga: minimal delays approx. 0.5 - 1 days
  • Napier: minimal delays approx. 0.5 - 1 days
  • Lyttleton: minimal delays approx. 0.5 - 1 days  

• Shanghai, Ningbo are still facing severe congestion.
• In Europe, Antwerp, Hamburg/Bremerhaven, Rotterdam and Gibraltar are facing significant congestion issues.  
• USA east coast ports issues have subsided.
• In SEA, Manila is impacted by a queue to berth ration of 2.67

• Ports in China, as well as other key hubs in Asia and Europe, are running low on 40ft high-cube and 20ft general-purpose containers. Leasing companies out of stock.

• Local Enterprise Agreements - 
  • Patrick & MUA Secure Early EBA Deal Through to 2028

    Patrick Terminals and the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) have announced a landmark early rollover of their Enterprise Agreement, extending industrial stability at all four Patrick terminals through to 31 December 2028—three years beyond the current expiry date.
    The agreement is a major development in what's expected to be a busy year for enterprise bargaining across Australia's container terminal network, with agreements at VICT, Hutchison, and Flinders Adelaide either expired or soon due.
    Key outcomes shared by the MUA include:

    • $2,000 sign-on bonus

    • Wage increases: 3.25% or CPI in 2026 & 2027; 3.5% or CPI in 2028

    • Superannuation boost to 12.5% from July 2025

    • Job security protections: no forced automation redundancies or outsourcing

    • Improved rostering and an overtime points system

    • Sick leave payout upon termination

    • 35% cumulative wage rise over seven years (2019–2028), according to MUA

  • Patrick CEO Michael Jovicic said the agreement provides "a strong foundation for the future," ensuring stability for employees and certainty for customers.

    The deal will now proceed to the Fair Work Commission for formal approval. FTA/APSA will continue to track enterprise negotiations across all major terminals.

• Spot Rates
  • Global air cargo yields increased +3.8% year-on-year and +6.6% month-on-month, marking a recovery after three consecutive months of decline. The rise is attributed to stronger load factors and a 17.3% YoY drop in jet fuel prices, providing rate stability despite geopolitical uncertainties?
• Tonnage
  • Global airfreight demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose +4.4% year-on-year in March 2025—setting a record high for the month. Seasonally adjusted growth was +3.3% month-on-month, with international traffic up +5.5% YoY?.
    Regionally:
    • Asia Pacific: +9.6% YoY
    • North America: +9.5%
    • Latin America: +5.8%
    • Europe: +4.5%
    • Middle East: -3.2%
    • Africa: -13.4%
      The decline in Africa and the Middle East reflects comparisons with exceptionally strong early 2024 figures?

• Market Trends
  • The March rebound aligns with historical patterns following the post-Lunar New Year lull, but may also reflect frontloading of shipments ahead of US tariff changes effective 2 April.
  • Airfreight volumes on Europe–North America (+8.5%) and Asia–Europe (+8.3%) trade lanes grew strongly, while Africa–Asia plunged -40.2%, extending a four-month decline.
  • Industrial output grew +3.2% YoY, while global trade volumes rose +2.9%, offering macroeconomic support.
  • Inflation has decelerated in the US (2.4%), EU (2.5%) and Japan (3.6%), while China remains in mild deflation (-0.1%), possibly softening pressure on air cargo costs?

• Capacity
  • Global available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs) increased +4.3% YoY, with international capacity rising +6.1%. The global load factor remained steady at 47.5%, supported by stronger belly-hold utilisation.
    Belly-hold capacity hit a record high with a +5.9% YoY increase, while freighter capacity rose +6.4% YoY, rebounding from a -1.2% decline in February.
    Regionally:
    • Asia Pacific: +11.3% capacity growth
    • North America: +6.1%
    • Europe: +2.0%
    • Latin America: +4.7%
    • Middle East: +0.8%
    • Africa: +10.8% (despite lower demand)

• Latest Updates as at 29 April 2025 (FTA / APSA LOGIN REQUIRED)

FTA / APSA IN THE MEDIA
 

 
Tom Jensen - General Manager Freight Policy & Operations - FTA / APSA

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