Collinson Weekly Market Commentary and Calendar

Monday, July 31, 2023


Weekly Market Commentary

Equity markets closed out a week of further gains, following monetary policy decisions from the Fed, ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan left interest rates in negative territory, but did tweak the tolerance levels for 10 year bonds, allowing them to increase to levels not seen since September 2014. This sent Japanese equities tumbling lower, while the Yen weakened to 141.00. Markets accepted the rate rises from the Fed and the ECB, looking towards the future and the cessation of interest rate rises. European GDP growth data was very weak, with many nation States hovering around recessionary levels, lead by the extremely challenged German economy. The EUR regained 1.1000, to close out the week, while the GBP rebounded to 1.2850.

This coming week will focus on a series of employment reports, coming out of the US, culminating in Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. The Bank of England and the RBA also meet for their latest interest rate decisions, and both are expected to raise rates, a further 25 basis points. There will be extreme and overt political pressure to keep rates STET, but we shall see. The very weak and recessionary conditions suffered in Europe, meant downside pressure on commodities and the corresponding currencies. The AUD fell back to 0.6600 levels, while the NZD has retreated towards 0.6100.

 Weekly Market Calendar

31/7 Japan Industrial Production/Retail Sales, NZ Business Confidence, China Non-Manufacturing/Manufacturing PMI, Japan Consumer Confidence/Home Sales, German Retail Sales, EU CPI/GDP, Chicago PMI
 
1/8 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, NZ Building Permits, Australia/Japan/China Manufacturing PMI, Japan Employment, Australia Building Permits, RBA Rate Decision, German Employment, UK/France/German/EU Manufacturing PMI, EU Employment, US Manufacturing PMI
 
2/8 Jolts Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, NZ Dairy Prices, NZ Employment, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, ADP Jobs Report
 
3/8 US Total Vehicle Sales, Australia/Japan/China Services/Composite PMI, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, German Trade Exports/Imports, UK/France/German/EU Services/Composite PMI, EU PPI, Bank of England Rate Decision, Challenger Jobs Report, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Services/Composite PMI
 
4/8 ISM Services/Composite PMI, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, German Factory Orders, China Current Account, EU Retail Sales, US Non-Farm Payrolls, US Employment

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