Collinson Weekly Market Commentary and Calendar

Monday, July 24, 2023


Daily Market Commentary

Markets closed out the second week in a row of strong gains on equity markets, confidence boosted by lower inflation and the prospect of 'peak interest rates'. This coming week will tell the story. Inflation data will be released from across Europe and the USA. Inflation has been tumbling lower in most economic zones, so any reversal in the emerging trend will be met with trepidation. The coming week will be dominated by Central Bank rate decisions and market speculation, leading into said decisions. The FOMC and the ECB both meet and release their decisions on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan,  Friday. The Fed and ECB are expected to raise rates by a further 25 basis points, although pressure will be on, to leave rates STET. The Bank of Japan has already indicated that rates will probably remain at their extremely stimulative levels. Inflation numbers across Europe will be driving markets, as will the important US PCE number, out in the USA. The EUR will open the week trading around 1.1100, while the GBP, will look to hold onto 1.2850.

Gloomy news from China and the prospect of a rate rise from the Fed, has added to downward pressure on the commodity currencies. The AUD has fallen back towards 0.6700, while the NZD trades around 0.6150. There is downside to the trans-Tasman commodity currencies, as the RBA and RBNZ look to hold rate rises, in the hope inflation will continue to cool. Attention in the coming week will be on the Central Bank rate decisions in Europe, the USA and Japan.

Daily Market Calendar

24/7 NZ trade Exports/Imports, Australia/Japan Services/Manufacturing/Composite flash PMI, NZ Credit Card Spending, UK/France/German/EU Services/Manufacturing/Composite flash PMI, US Services/Manufacturing/Composite flash PMI, Chicago Fed National Activity Index
 
25/7 German Ifo Business Climate, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
 
26/7 US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed National Activity Index, Australia CPI, France Consumer Confidence, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Building Permits
 
27/7 US New Home Sales, FOMC Rate Decision, German Consumer Confidence, ECB Rate Decision, US Durable Goods Orders, US Weekly Jobless Claims
 
28/7 US Pending Home Sales, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, NZ  Consumer Confidence, Japan Tokyo CPI, Bank of Japan Rate Decision, France GDP, France CPI/PPI, EU Consumer Confidence, German CPI, US PCE, University of Michigan Economic Sentiment

PLEASE NOTE THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS COMMENTARY ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT COLLINSON & CO

Paul Bettany   I   Collinson Forex Limited    Collinson & Co.  Private Banking   

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