Collinson Weekly Market Commentary and Calendar

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets closed the week out brimming with confidence, despite fears of recession, inflation and the banking crises. Concerns of a 'Banking Crises' were allayed somewhat, when the Fed's stress tests, passed the US banks with flying colours! This is somewhat surprising as circumstances have not changed markedly, since the last Bank collapse, but now the Fed assures markets of the Banks collective soundness. This when Fed Chair Powell previously denied the Fed's role in oversight and    management of the Banks. Inflation that has been driving rising interest rates and the recessionary pressures, but inflation fears are on decline, despite Central Banks' warnings of future interest rate rises. The optimism stems from inflation data suggesting US inflation is in decline, with the latest PCE indicator in the US, confirming a decline in inflation. Market optimism was reflected in equities, which surged to near record highs last Friday, while bond yields and the US Dollar settled lower. The EUR regained 1.0900, while the GBP headed back towards 1.2700, despite an anaemic GDP reading.
 
The surge in market confidence and the softer reserve, allowed the commodity currencies to gain some stability. The AUD bounced strongly off 0.6600, while the NZD surged back above 0.6100. The coming week is a busy one, data wise, with the RBA's latest monetary policy decision, culminating in US Non-Farm Payrolls. The Fed is looking for an easing in the labour market, to confirm the rate rises are having an impact and quelling inflationary pressures.

Weekly Market Calendar

3/7 NZ Building Permits, Australia/China/Japan Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Report, Australia Building Permits/Job Ads, Australia Commodity Prices, UK/France/Germany/EU Manufacturing PMI, US Manufacturing PMI
 
4/7 ISM Manufacturing, NZ Business Confidence, RBA Rate Decision, German Trade Exports/Imports
 
5/7 NZ Dairy Prices, Australia/Japan/China Services/Composite PMI, UK/France/Germany/EU Services/Composite PMI, UK New Car Sales, EU PPI
 
6/7 US Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes, Australia Trade Exports/Imports, German Factory Orders, EU Retail sales, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, Challenger Jobs Report, ADP Jobs Report, US Trade Exports/Imports,  US Services/Composite PMI
 
7/7 ISM Services PMI, Jolts Job Openings, German Industrial Production, UK House Prices, France Current Account/Trade Exports/Imports, Non-Farm Payrolls, US Employment

Paul Bettany   

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