New research released today identifies the timing, costs and benefits of the game-changing rail link that will transform south western Sydney and the Illawarra, the South West Illawarra Rail Link (SWIRL), and details how it should extend from Wollongong through to St Marys.
It also delivers a concerning appraisal of the costs of delay, both social and economic, in addressing rail constraints in two regions with booming populations, growing freight demand and rail connectivity that is either ageing, reaching peak congestion or absent altogether.
The research is a cross-regional collaboration designed to progress thinking on rail connectivity between the two regions and was commissioned by the Illawarra's peak business leadership group, Illawarra First, supported by Wollongong and Wollondilly councils, and undertaken by the University of Wollongong's SMART Infrastructure Facility.
The report outlines the need for a passenger and freight orbital rail connection linking St Marys to Wollongong via the Aerotropolis at the Western Sydney Airport (WSA); a $3.2 billion project that will deliver a cost-benefit ratio (BCR) of 1.05 on a highly conservative discount rate. The NSW Treasury considers any project with a BCR of more than one to be a viable investment.
SMART have recommended that this solution be based on the SWIRL to minimise the cost compared against other contemporary freight and passenger solutions such as the Western Sydney Freight Link or Sydney Metro. The proposal benefits from cost savings realised by utilising an existing rail corridor, the Maldon to Dombarton freight line, as well as the relatively under-developed areas between Picton and St Marys, west of the planned site of WSA at Badgerys Creek.
Unlike existing government thinking on the Outer Sydney Orbital, which is slated for 2056, or any future 'fast rail' proposals which presumably will be delivered even later, SMART have recommended the first stage of the SWIRL be delivered from 2041.
Previous Illawarra First research in 2017 found the SWIRL to be the most cost-effective rail project to overcome the peak rail congestion timeframe facing the Illawarra, which Transport for NSW believes to be coming as soon as 2036.
This new evidence base considers major developments that have occurred since, including the development of WSA, the Aerotropolis (together with its 100,000 jobs), the metro line connecting it to St Marys (and potentially Macarthur) and the population growth of both the Illawarra (60,400 additional residents by 2050) and the Wollondilly (50,000 additional residents).
Executive Director of the Illawarra Business Chamber, Adam Zarth, said that Illawarra First has led regional advocacy on the rail line since its inception in 2017, but that the new research updated and expanded the evidence, recommending that government begin planning to deliver the first stage of the project by 2036.
"The business communities and local governments of this broader region want to see action on planning rail connectivity to facilitate the population and economic growth of the Illawarra and south-western Sydney," he said.
"This report provides a compelling case for a south-western rail link to be constructed by 2036 to allow residents of the Illawarra and Wollondilly ready access to the 200,000 jobs that will be created in Western Sydney over the next 20 years, and avoid $229 million in economic losses associated with restrictive freight capacity and $680 million in productivity losses due to commuting by 2041."
"The first stage of a South West Illawarra Rail Link will be necessary by 2036, on account of freight and passenger congestion on the South Coast Line, in preparation for the planned container terminal at Port Kembla and to connect the growing population at Wilton."
"Our ask is neither unreasonable or impossible; but rather we have ensured this research is based on the NSW Government's own rail data, freight numbers from NSW Ports and the sober economic analysis methods employed by Treasury."
"The report recommends that Transport for NSW commences planning as soon as possible, and that Infrastructure Australia updates its priority list to acknowledge the SWIRL-Maldon corridor as a future 'alternative rail alignment to the Port'. Planning must move beyond a dotted line on a map and cannot rely on 'fast rail' concepts that will only serve future generations," said Mr Zarth.
Media Contact: James Newton, Policy Manager at Illawarra Business Chamber (0424 254 281)
Report: A summary is available here and the complete report available on request.
View the full media release here.