Collinsonfx Weekly Marketing Commentary and Calendar

Monday, February 17, 2020

Weekly Market Commentary

US equities closed the week softer, but stronger for the week, despite fears over the spread of the Coronavirus. The Coronavirus has surged past 60,000 infections, by Friday's close and approaching 1,500 deaths. The containment is the big question, but markets remain remarkably resilient to the fear-factor, with US equities trading close to record highs. German GDP growth was close to zero, while the EU number was below 1%, reflecting the gloomy space the EU is operating in. As predicted, the EU will suffer Brexit, a lot more than the UK. The GBP surged to 1.3050, while the EUR plunged to 1.0830, setting a trend of bearish action that may continue throughout 2020.
 
The trade exposed commodity currencies received a boost during the week, with the AUD regaining a key technical support level around 0.6700, while the NZD bounced back strongly to 0.6430. The NZD recovery was a reaction to the bullish commentary from the RBNZ and the revision of monetary policy sentiment, from bearish to neutral. The RBNZ have cited monetary and fiscal stimulus as the reason for the positive forecasts, but did have warnings surrounding the coronavirus. The RBA extended the considered threats to include surging household debt and the fallout from bushfires and drought.
 
Markets will remain very quiet, until Tuesday, due to the President's Day long weekend in the US.

Weekly Market Calendar

17/2 NZ Services PMI, Japan GDP, UK GDP, UK House Prices, Japan Industrial Production, EU Construction
 
18/2 Australia Consumer Confidence, RBA Minutes, UK Employment, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment
 
19/2 NAHB House Market Index, Japan Trade Exports/Imports, EU Current Account, UK CPI, Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Building Permits, US Housing Starts
 
20/2 FOMC Minutes, NZ PPI, Australia Unemployment, German Consumer Confidence, UK Retail Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Report
 
21/2 EU Consumer Confidence, US Leading Index, Australia Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, Japan CPI, Japan Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, German/France/UK/EU Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI, EU CPI, US services/Manufacturing/EU PMI, US Existing Home Sales