Weekly Market Commentary
Markets closed the week lower, after setting new records all week, supported by growing confidence over 'Phase One' of the US/China trade agreement. Friday's correction did not manage to damage the huge gains for November, as markets traded lightly on 'Black Friday' and the close of the half days trade on Wall Street. President Trump signed a congressional bill supporting the Hong Kong democracy protesters and the Chinese did not appreciate the development. Chinese authorities promised 'strong counter measures' which may impact the US/China trade deal, which triggered negative speculation on equity markets. The Dollar was steady, with the EUR trading 1.1015, while the GBP drifted to 1.2935.
Commodity currencies drifted from the weeks highs, with the NZD holding above 0.6400, while the AUD slipped to 0.6760. The fall-out from the US Hong Kong bill may impact negatively on these trade exposed currencies and speculation surrounding the 'Phase One' US/China trade deal will continue to determine macro direction. The RBA will announce their latest rate decision this week and they are expected to hold rates unchanged, although expect rhetoric supporting further accommodative monetary policy.
US markets return to normal this week, after the disrupted Thanksgiving week of holidays, culminating in US jobs reports later in the week.
Weekly Market Calendar
2/12 NZ Terms of Trade, Australia Manufacturing PMI, Australia Building Approvals, Australia Job Ads, Japan Manufacturing PMI, China Manufacturing PMI
3/12 Australia Commodity Prices, Italy/France/German/EU/UK Manufacturing PMI, Australia Current Account, RBA Rate Decision, UK Construction
4/12 NZ House Prices, Australia Services/Composite PMI, NZ Commodity Prices, Australia GDP, China Services/Composite PMI, Italy/France/German/EU/UK Services/Composite PMI, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, ADP Jobs Report
5/12 US Services/Composite PMI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision, ISM Services/Composite, RBNZ Capital Ration Decision, Australia Trade, Australia Retail Sales, German Factory Orders, German Construction, EU GDP, EU Retail Sales, EU Employment, Challenger Jobs Report, US Weekly Jobless Claims
6/12 US Durable Goods Orders, US Factory Orders, German Industrial Production, US Non Farm Payrolls, US Employment, University of Michigan Sentiment