Weekly Market Commentary
Markets rebounded strongly, to close the week, after President Trump confirmed was a very 'good chance to make a deal'. President Xi, of China, confirmed they 'want to make a deal' but had the caveat that they were prepared to 'fight back', if necessary. US Economic data continues to impress, with Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI all beating expectations, supporting the strong economic narrative. In contrast, the EU and UK are bumbling along, narrowly avoiding recession. UK economic data is starting to reflect the confusion in the political realm, although the Brexit election, promises a solution is nigh. The GBP drifted back to 1.2830, while the EUR attempted to hold 1.1000, despite the German economic weakness.
The coming week promises to be dominated by the US/China trade drama, as speculation over the 'Phase One' trade deal, drives currency and equity market direction. The trade exposed, commodity currencies are particularly vulnerable to the US/China trade speculation, but have been remarkably resilient of recent times. The AUD has fallen back below 0.6800, while the NZD hold 0.6400, although the touchstone remains the upcoming Business Confidence number, released later this coming week. This measure has become a key economic indicator and drives the local currency, although the recent improvement has allowed some positives.
Weekly Market Calendar
25/11 German IFO Business Climate, Chicago Fed National Activity Index
26/11 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, NZ Retail Sales, Australia Consumer Confidence, German Consumer Confidence, US Trade Exports/Imports, EU Consumer Confidence, German CPI
27/11 German Retail Sales, S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index, US Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity,
28/11 NZ Trade Exports/Imports, US Durable Goods Orders, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US GDP, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Pending Home Sales, US Personal Income/Spending, Fed's Beige Book, NZ Business Confidence
29/11 NZ Consumer Confidence, Japan CPI, Japan Industrial Production, Japan Consumer Confidence, France GDP, EU CPI, German Employment, EU Employment, China Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
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