Collinsonfx Daily Market Commentary

Friday, August 23, 2019


Daily Market Commentary
 
Equity Markets continued to rally, ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, which the Fed's Chairman will set the tone tonight. Other members of the Federal Reserve have been out in the media refuting the need for further rate cuts. The strong US economy does not demand further rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve remains under extreme pressure from President Trump and other Central Banks. The US has to compete and other Central Banks are operating in extremely soft monetary policy environments. The ECB and Bank of Japan are operating in a negative interest rate environment, while the RBA and RBNZ are cutting to a discount differential to the Fed.
 
UK PM Boris Johnson continued his tour in Europe ahead of the G7, attempting to forge a new Brexit deal, before the October 31st deadline. He met with French President Macron, who seemed keen to accommodate the British in their quest for Brexit. The GBP rallied strongly on the positive discussions, pushing up to 1.2260, while the EUR languished below 1.1100. European PMI data managed to post slight gains, while the same PMI data in the US was soft. Markets remain focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve, while the G7 provides a substantial Geo-Political distraction. Trade remains key to the performance of commodity currencies, which directly impacts the supply chain, that dictates the trade exposed countries. The NZD continues to suffer, falling to new lows around 0.6360, while the AUD drifted to 0.6755.
 
Look to Wyoming and Biarritz for market direction.