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International freight markets are entering the final months of 2026 with an unusual mix of strong cargo demand, shifting vessel capacity and persistent geopolitical risk. Rather than disruption moving uniformly in one direction, conditions are increasingly being shaped by competing forces. Asia-Oceania container demand remains particularly strong, up 26% year-to-date, while a record global vessel orderbook and the gradual restoration of shorter Suez routings are beginning to increase the amount of effective capacity available to carriers.

For Australian shippers, October brought some easing in China-Australia spot rates and improved congestion at several major Asian hubs. However, this has not translated into a straightforward reduction in freight costs. Carriers have announced further November rate restorations and peak-season surcharges across Asia-Australia trades, while blank sailings, port omissions and equipment imbalances continue to influence available space. The longer-term picture is increasingly supply-heavy, with the global containership orderbook now approaching half the size of the existing fleet.

One of the biggest changes this month is the accelerating return of container shipping to the Suez Canal. Around 60% of Asia-Europe capacity was again using the route by early November, with Europe-Australia services also returning. Shorter rotations should improve vessel utilisation, equipment circulation and available capacity, but security risks remain significant. The Strait of Hormuz continues to experience severe disruption and the wider Middle East situation means routing decisions could change quickly if conditions deteriorate.

Closer to home, landside charges are again firmly in focus. The new NTC National Voluntary Guidelines for Landside Stevedore and Empty Container Park Charges commence on 1 January 2027, extending the framework to ECP charges and requiring participating operators to provide at least 60 days' notice of proposed price changes, together with greater justification and an opportunity for industry feedback. Early indications however, are that not many ECP operators have complied with the guidelines and costs across both terminals and ECP's are going up well above CPI across both. These reforms were hoped to improve transparency, but that remains to be seen. FTA/APSA continue to advocate for stronger reform of how landside charges are ultimately recovered.

There are some encouraging operational indicators. Australian blank sailings have reduced to 7.2%, compared with 13.9% three months ago, and global schedule reliability improved slightly in September. Nevertheless, late vessels are still averaging 6.65 days behind schedule, congestion remains an issue at parts of the Asian and European port network, and industrial action presents additional risks in Australia and overseas. Air cargo is also firming into peak season, with higher Asia-Pacific rates and constrained Middle East capacity adding pressure to international airfreight markets.

The picture heading into 2027 is therefore finely balanced. Strong Australian trade demand and ongoing disruption are supporting rates in the near term, while additional ships, shorter Suez rotations and improving effective capacity are building pressure in the opposite direction. For cargo owners, keeping a close watch on capacity deployment, freight and landside charges, equipment availability and changing routings will remain critical as these competing pressures play out.

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FTA / APSA Shipping Report - Edition 31 2026 Sponsored by Port of Brisbane