July has opened with the international freight market under pressure from every direction — rising container rates, renewed surcharge activity, fragile shipping corridors, shifting US trade policy and unresolved air cargo liability concerns.

For Australian importers, exporters and freight forwarders, the issue is no longer simply whether cargo can be moved. Cargo is moving. The harder question is whether it can move with enough price certainty, schedule reliability and contractual clarity to support commercial decisions.

That distinction matters. A container that arrives late, a surcharge that was not budgeted, a liability setting that shifts risk without control, or a service change that removes a direct option can all have consequences well beyond the freight invoice. This month's report points to a market that remains functional, but increasingly unforgiving.

Container rates have again moved sharply upward, with carrier restorations, peak season surcharges and blank sailings reinforcing the return of price discipline across key trades. For Australia, the China–Australia market remains the main pressure point, while South East Asia–Australia is also showing signs of movement after a more subdued period. Members should be careful not to treat the broader Asia–Australia trade as one uniform market, as pricing, capacity and service reliability are now moving differently across origin regions.

At the same time, geopolitical risk continues to shape freight decisions even where routes remain technically open. The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea are not simply map points; they are now live cost and reliability variables. A vessel may still be able to transit, but that does not mean the passage is commercially clean. Insurance settings, fuel costs, security advice, carrier confidence and the risk of delay all need to be factored into forward planning. For members, the focus should remain practical: know your routing, understand your surcharge exposure, and make sure customers are not being promised certainty that the market cannot currently deliver.

For the full report, please click HERE (downloadable PDF)
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Tom Jensen - General Manager Freight Policy & Operations - FTA / APSA

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