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The international freight market is again being shaped by forces well beyond traditional supply and demand. While container rates, blank sailings and service reliability remain front and centre for Australian shippers, the broader operating environment is now being influenced by a wider mix of geopolitical risk, air cargo liability reform, US trade policy uncertainty and renewed focus on national maritime resilience.

Middle East tensions remain a major pressure point. The issue is no longer simply whether key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea remain technically navigable, but whether cargo can move with enough certainty to support production schedules, inland logistics, inventory planning and contractual delivery obligations. Higher bunker and jet fuel costs, war-risk premiums, altered routings and disrupted capacity continue to flow through the system, reinforcing that global freight remains highly exposed to regional instability.

For Australia, the commercial impacts are becoming more visible. Sea freight rates have continued to face upward pressure, with carrier rate restorations, peak season surcharges and capacity management again testing landed-cost assumptions. Air cargo is also facing its own significant policy challenge, with proposed IATA changes to Direct Air Waybill liability settings raising serious concerns about the allocation of risk across shippers, airlines and freight forwarders, particularly where forwarders act in an agency or facilitation role without full operational control.

At the same time, Australian exporters are watching closely as the United States considers new tariff measures that could place Australia in a higher duty band of up to 12.5%. While the measures have not yet been implemented, they underline a clear shift in US trade policy towards supply-chain transparency, labour standards and broader compliance-based enforcement. For exporters, this creates another layer of uncertainty in an already complex trading environment.

Domestically, the confirmation of the ANL Kokoda as the first vessel under the Strategic Fleet Pilot Program marks an important development in Australia's maritime policy settings. The initiative is being positioned as supplementary resilience capability rather than a replacement for existing commercial shipping services. That distinction will be critical as the program develops, particularly for members reliant on established liner services, coastal connections, trans-Tasman trades and predictable international freight flows.

The report points to a market that continues to function, but with less room for error. Cargo is moving, services are adapting, and commercial operators are finding ways through the disruption — but the cost of uncertainty is rising. For importers, exporters, freight forwarders, customs brokers and logistics providers, the practical task remains the same: test contract terms, monitor surcharge exposure, maintain contingency options and avoid assuming that today's routing, pricing or liability settings will hold tomorrow.

In this environment, resilience is not a slogan. It is the difference between cargo moving as planned and cargo moving only after the damage has already been done.

For the full report, please click HERE (downloadable PDF)
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FTA / APSA Shipping Report - Edition 26 2026 Sponsored by PayCargo