Collinson Forex - Weekly Market Commentary and Calendar

Weekly Market Commentary 

OPEC+, is the new expanded OPEC, including Russia and other major non-OPEC oil producers. This new, expansion organisation, has agreed to increase oil production. Meeting in Vienna this week, after pressure from the Trump administration, they have ignored Iran and agreed to increase supply. This allowed for a relief rally in equities, after a volatile week, dominated by expanding global trade wars. The trade negotiations are going on behind the scenes and the tit-for-tat rhetoric is a critical part of these negotiations. The EU have responded to the US Steel and Aluminium tariffs, with politically targeted selective tariffs, inviting a 20% tariff to be levied on EU car exports to the US. These 'trade wars' are disruptive to global markets, especially upsetting trade exposed nations, but will be resolved.

The Bank of England left rates unchanged, but some members were more hawkish in their views, increasing the chance of an interest rate rise in the near future. The 'Brexit' disruptions are likely to continue, but the eventual extraction will see confidence flood the UK markets and the currency. Markets will look at the RBNZ OCR in the coming week, although no changes are expected, but attention will be paid to the Governor's rhetoric. The NZD has suffered the trade disruptions, as has the AUD and both remain vulnerable. The NZD closed the week trading around 0.6900, while the AUD holds 0.7440.

Expect more disruptions, in the coming week, from trade negotiations. The EU summit is likely to be a major Geo-Political event and likely to be dominated by the immigration issue and the associated complications. This could be the beginning of the end for Merkel and the European old guard.

Daily Market Calendar

25/6 German IFO Business Climate, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, US New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity

26/6 Australia Consumer Confidence, Case Shiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity, US Consumer Confidence

27/6 NZ Trade Exports/Imports, German Retail Sales, US Weekly Mortgage Applications, US Durable Goods Orders, US Pending Home Sales

28/6 RBNZ OCR, German Consumer Confidence, EU Business/Consumer Confidence, German CPI, US GDP, US Weekly Jobless Applications, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity

29/6 NZ Consumer Confidence, NZ Building Permits, UK Consumer Confidence, Japan Employment, Japan Industrial Production, Japan Employment, German Employment, UK GDP, UK Current Account, EU CPI, Canada GDP, US Personal Income/Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment

 30/6 China Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMI

Paul Bettany

Collinson & Co

0406-744-923